I’m a new member on the Wiki, and I figured I would add my own two cents on this season’s cast. Naturally everything I say will be wrong, but it’s still interesting to speculate.
I have no idea how this tribe will structure itself. It seems probable that Dan will be on the outs, but after that it’s a bit of a toss-up. My guess is Mike, Rodney, and Sierra will work together to oust Dan for being a weak link, followed by either Lindsey or Kelly for not fitting in.
I like Dan a lot, but his age and self-professed weakness at running may lead to an early boot. If he does manage to make it to the merge he could do very well, but it seems like a long shot against him.
Kelly seems to be a strong competitor, but her career as a state trooper may drive a wedge between her and her fellow tribe mates. If she plays her cards right she could go far as a less paranoid Tony, but I don’t think Tony’s win is a sign that cops will succeed in the future.
I’m definitely getting some déjà vu here. Probably has something to do with the inexplicable casting crew decision to have two tattooed hairstylists named Lindsey in three seasons. She may not quit, but I don’t expect much from her.
Mike is a mystery to me, as he seems like a nice guy, but claims he wants to be the villain. Unlike a certain previous contestant from the oil business, I don’t think Mike will fulfill the villain role well. I see him leading his tribe early on, but if he ever attempts a villainous move it will likely prelude his elimination.
Rodney believes he will be the best player from Boston in the history of the game, which is certainly a bold claim, though not impossible. He seems like a charismatic guy but I think he overestimates that charisma’s ability to help him in the game.
I really want to like Sierra, and I do believe she will be a more interesting character than some of the previous country girls (looking at you, Jefra and Whitney) on the show, however she doesn’t seem like the greatest strategist. She’ll probably follow her alliance through the merge and be blindsided or outnumbered shortly thereafter.
Most of this tribe are A-type personalities who definitely came to win, however their assertiveness may lead to difficulty cooperating. My guess is a challenge loss will unify them and cement them as the strongest of the three tribes.
If her tribe loses she seems like the obvious boot due to her age and admitted argumentative personality. People from my hometown always seem to disappoint…Monica Culpepper being the most successful player from a city is a sad state of affairs.
I find Joaquin’s arrogance distasteful. Ordinarily his attitude might place a target on his back, but this tribe seems to share his personality, albeit to a lesser degree. His strength will be an asset, though, and if his hubris comes across as optimistic confidence, he should make it through the merge and maybe near the end.
The show has seen its share of super-fans, but very few can rival Dawson’s (Pretty sure Jeff will give him the last name preferential treatment) mania. Although funnily enough, I think Dan might actually be the biggest fan this season. The Survivor Professor seems like an entertaining guy, and undoubtedly a strategic threat, but I can’t see him making it very far. He might make the merge, but after that I don’t think he can make it past 10th or 11th voted out.
Another strong strategic personality, and it is especially nice to see it from a female minority. I really look forward to seeing her play, and I think she has the capacity to win this season.
I feel like So and Shirin will ally with someone (probably Joaquin because they should be able to manipulate him) to dominate the season strategically and socially. Of the two of them I think Shirin will be the stronger strategist with So having the stronger social game.
Tyler seems like the only person on his tribe without an alpha personality, which is interesting, and probably the only interesting thing I see in him. He apparently has experience dealing with big personalities from working with a talent agency, so if he can continue that with his tribe mates he might go far.
I can easily see a “cool kids” alliance reminiscent of Caramoan with Hali, Jenn, Joe, and Vince, with Nina and Will on the outs. Unlike in Caramoan, such an alliance could succeed, as they would lack formidable opposition within their tribe. I think Vince will end up leading the alliance and the tribe as a whole. At first glance this seems like the weakest of the three tribes.
Vince is surprisingly down to earth despite his appearance. I am pleased to see the feather man won’t be another Phillip Sheppard. He seems like an intelligent player who will end up leading a considerably less intelligent tribe, and I expect him to be voted out early post-merge as a threat.
Of the two apparently requisite young blonde girls, Hali seems like the more strategic and capable, however she claims in her “Meet” video that she plans to align with a tall blonde guy (Presumably Vince) and I honestly don’t see her doing much on her own if they do become allies.
In her video, Jenn states her priorities if she wins are to buy a jet ski and start a vineyard, despite knowing nothing whatsoever about winemaking. This is, of course, in place of mentioning any kind of plan other than “I’d rather align with guys than girls.” This doesn’t evoke much confidence I me that she will be a strategic player. I see her working with Hali, Vince, and Joe until someone taps her on the shoulder and tells her she was voted out.
I would love to see Joe win this season. Unfortunately, I don’t think he can, as he may fall victim to his own likeability sometime after the merge. Joe definitely has physical and strategic potential, but unlike many of the other men, he seems to be more humble. He doesn’t claim he’s the greatest player ever, but he recognizes his potential to win the game.
Will has proven that he can be an entertaining guy, but I’m not sure where his head is at going into this game. His likeability may not be enough to save him from an early exit courtesy of the younger members of his tribe.
Nina actually seems like the most strategic woman on her tribe, but the combo of partial deafness and age mean the odds against her are likely insurmountable. If she is not in a majority alliance, (which will probably be the case) she is almost certainly the first to go from her tribe.
2nd Runner-Up-Tyler (No votes)
1st Runner-Up-So (Hali, Rodney, Mike)
Winner-Shirin (Joaquin, Joe, Sierra, Kelly, Vince)