It never ceases to amaze me how many survivor contestants focus on making it to the final jury vote, but pay no attention to winning the vote. It's almost as if they're only playing to come in 2nd or 3rd. It is a guaranteed payday if you make it to the final, but it's not very admirable to just do whatever it takes to make sure you're the one everyone wants to take to the jury vote with them. I suspect this is what has driven Dan and Will's behavior this season. They're not good enough to outwit and outplay everyone, so they're counting on the outlast part of the equation. And to do that, you either have to ride the coattails of an Alpha Male ala Sierra, be a backstabbing liar, or be a complete a-hole. Sierra has the coattail rider slot all sewn up, but it's a 3 way race between Dan, Will, and Rodney for the backstabbing, a-hole position. Here are my rankings of who I would vote for to win if I was on the jury, plus my predictions on how the current/potential jurors will vote. The higher ranked castaways would get my vote before any of the people ranked beneath them, if they were in the final together.

  1. Mike - He's my favorite and I hope he wins. He has worked the hardest for the title of "Sole Survivor". Plus, I think the 5 people already on the Jury (except maybe Jenn, who likes to throw monkey wrenches in the works) will vote for him over anyone else who's left.
  2. Tyler - One of the most clever and mysterious castaways I've ever seen. Out of all of them, he has the best strategic game, though he loses points for stealing Dan's bag. Despite that transgression, I think Tyler would also be a palatable voting choice for the Jury.
  3. Carolyn - She is definitely not a person I would like to see win, but she has played a brilliant stealth game, playing her cards close to the chest, keeping her idol a secret, being a non-entity in the challenges, letting Rodney think he's the leader, keeping quiet in the camp conflicts. She has done everything she needs to do to keep her hopes of winning alive. And yet, I can't wait for her to go. The only way Carolyn wins is if she is at the final with Dan and Will. If she is against Rodney or Sierra, I think the only votes she gets are Will and Tyler. If Rodney is on the jury, maybe she gets his vote, but only if it's a choice between her, Sierra, and Mike.
  4. Rodney - He's such an idiot. A stereotypical loudmouth braggart and bodybuilder. All brawn and no brains. All talk and no walk. All show and no go. Completely worthless in challenges, despite all those muscles. No social game. A strategy that starts and stops with getting rid of Mike, with no clue how he's going to make it any further in the game if and when Mike's gone. Maybe it's just editing, but I don't think so. But I'd still rather see Rodney win than the bottom 3. I think that Rodney would get more jury votes than Carolyn, but I don't think he necessarily deserves to beat her.
  5. Dan - He's the most stubborn dumb mule I've ever seen in this game. When he is voted out, as he most assuredly will be if he doesn't align with Mike, I wonder what he'll have to say for himself? No way this guy gets any votes to win unless he is up against Sierra and/or Will.
  6. Sierra - Tailcoat rider all the way. None of the current or potential jurors are going to vote for her, unless she is in a two person final against...
  7. Will - Will has positioned himself as the person the other castaways want to go up against at the jury vote. Will couldn't care less about winning, he's just hoping for a runner up payday. No respect whatsoever for this ass clown.

Mike and Tyler are the biggest threats to win the jury vote. The other 5 be wise to get rid of Mike and Tyler as soon as they can. Will, Sierra, and Dan have got to know they can't win unless they are going up against each other at the final. If they had any brains, they'd align to get out the the others, and give themselves a real shot at the million dollars. I think Dan is the only one who could get this done with his double vote, but I don't see Dan, Sierra, and Will being smart enough to figure that out. I doubt they have a complete brain between the 3 of them.