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Episode 10 tribal council scenarios

Chrissh April 21, 2015 User blog:Chrissh

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Here are some possibilities for the outcome of the vote in Episode 10:

  1. Jenn is voted out, which is going to happen if she doesn't have immunity, unless Rodney does something crazy (not impossible).
  2. Jenn has individual immunity, forcing the 8 person BC alliance to fracture one episode early. If this is the case, look for Rodney to make an early move on Mike either by convincing Jenn to vote with him, or by using the double vote from the auction.
  3. If Rodney tries to vote Mike off, but Mike uses his idol, then whoever Mike's alliance votes for will go home. It could be Rodney or Will, as I doubt Mike would turn on Tyler or Carolyn at this point, because turning on one of them means losing both of them (which he already has, apparently, but Mike doesn't necessarily know that).
  4. If Tyler really is aligned with Rodney, he might tip him off that Mike probably has an idol, which would discourage Rodney from voting Mike, and would instead result in Shirin or Sierra going home.
  5. It is possible, but not likely, that Mike will not play his idol, and will end up getting voted off.
  6. Other scenarios involve people switching alliances, though I think everyone is pretty much settled-in right now, and the only way someone might switch is if it was their only hope for staying in the game.

To recap, the most likely scenario is that Jenn goes home. If Jenn is immune, I think Shirin, Will, and Sierra are vulnerable, as are Mike and Rodney. I think Carolyn and Tyler are safe for the time being, because they are too important to the end game strategy of Rodney, and Mike probably feels grateful to Tyler for his help in finding the immunity idol. Dan is safe because he is the person everyone wants to go up against at the jury vote. So, if not Jenn, then Shirin, Will, or Sierra, and if not them, Rodney or Mike. It all depends on who gets individual immunity and whether or not a hidden immunity idol is played.

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